Land-Based Casino Revenue Trends Differ by State and Market, Analyst

With brick-and-mortar casinos available across the United States, the growth of the land-based sector remains a complex, difficult and fluctuating process that varies from one market to the other. That’s the opinion of an expert analyst who recently argued that a one-size-fits-all growth trajectory for casinos across the country doesn’t apply.

A Range of Factors Impact Land-Based Casino Gambling Growth

Carlo Santarelli, an analyst with Deutsche Bank, who was recently quoted by CDC Gaming, explored the intricate connections between land-based casinos and the growth of the sector. In a recent investor note, the expert pointed to many factors that may hinder or propel the growth of land-based venues across the country. Such include legislative changes, competition, the expansion of online gambling and other meaningful factors.

Looking back a decade, Santarelli and fellow Deutsche Bank analysts identified 80 regional casinos that can be analyzed based on a specific criterion. Factors that determined the criteria included opening before 2013 and excluding casinos that have been affected by legal changes or competition.

Out of the 80 venues analyzed, the highest number of venues were in Iowa, a total of 16, followed by 14 in Louisiana, 13 in Missouri, 11 in Ohio, seven in Indiana, five in Pennsylvania as well as three each in Maryland, Michigan, West Virginia and Kansas. The analysis uncovered that a total of seven states recorded growth in land-based casino gambling since 2015. In contrast, the sector saw a significant decrease in four states.

Santarelli explained: “The domestic regional gaming environment is often discussed as a flat to slightly positive growth market, as measured by gross gaming revenue.” However, he argued that such a representation of the land-based vertical may be misleading in some cases.

Despite the Impact of Online Gambling, Several States Recorded Increase in Casino Revenue

Focusing on the impact of iGaming, the analyst recognized the cannibalization effect that affects land-based casino revenue. He pointed to 11 states where thanks to iGaming, a notable decrease of 9.7% in casino revenue was recorded over the last decade. The states where brick-and-mortar casino gambling was impacted by iGaming the worst were Pennsylvania, Michigan, as well as West Virginia.

On the bright side, revenue in several states marked a notable increase. The list includes Iowa, where land-based casino revenue soared by 20% over the last decade, followed by Missouri where it increased by 10%. Positive growth was observed in Kansas and Indiana, where casino revenue jumped by 2% in the last 10 years.

In contrast to those results, notable decreases have been recorded in a number of important gambling markets, including Pennsylvania. There, casino revenue marked a 12% dip, while Louisiana recorded a 17% decline in revenue. In Michigan, the revenue dipped by 7% over the last decade, while West Virginia casinos that have undergone analysis saw a decrease of 15% in revenue.

Undoubtedly, the expansion of online gambling may result in further changes to the current gambling landscape in the country. To help protect brick-and-mortar casinos from the negative impact of iGaming legalization, lawmakers in many states are considering tying online gambling licenses to racetracks or land-based casinos.